COUNTRY VIEW
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
OVERVIEW: Domestic political tensions will conciliate high ahead of the presidential election schedule for betimes 2004. Relations between mainland China and China will persevere uneasy. GDP growth will be 3.2% in 2003 and 5.4% in 2004. Consumer prices will rise by an annual average of 0.3% in 2003, with inflation picking up to 1.4% in 2004. The New Taiwan dollar is expected to firm against the US dollar from the hour half of 2003. The current- account surplus will narrow from US$25.7bn (9.1% of GDP) in 2002 to US$17.4bn (5.6% of GDP) in 2004.
DOMESTIC POLITICS: The Democratic modernized company (DPP) is the largest party in the legislature, but it lacks a legal age even with the support of its allies in the Taiwan Solidarity substance (TSU). As a result, to attract legislation enacted, the president, Chen shui-bian, who is in any case the leader of the DPP, must continue to rely on his governments superpower to co-opt members of the opposition bloc, comprising the Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalists) and the People First company (PFP).
As the KMT and the PFP will non want Mr Chens government to come along an effective policymaking body ahead of the presidential election scheduled to take place in March 2004, to be followed by the legislative yuan (parliament) election later in the alike(p) year, the possibility of cross-party co-operation during the remainder of 2003 and into 2004 is low.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The new leadership of Chinas thought party, appointed at the 16th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in November 2002, will be in imposing charge of cross-Strait affairs in 2003-04, but the departing leadership will retain a decisive influence. No high-level impact between the two sides is likely, as Mr Chen will not compromise Taiwans separate and independent status. Lower-level rapprochement will...
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